Spatial Regression of Juvenile Delinquency: Revisiting Shaw and McKay.
Abstract:
This paper re-examines the seminal work of Shaw and McKay (1942, 1969) on the spatial analysis of crime using modern statistical regression techniques as a test of Social Disorganization Theory. Data Horn the hand-drawn maps in the book Juvenile Delinquency in Urban Areas were transcribed and analyzed using four spatial lag and four spatial error regression models. The spatial regression analysis shows families on relief, median monthly rent, homeownership rates, and rates of foreign-born and minority heads of households each have a statistically significant impact on male juvenile crime and delinquency. Distance fiom the central business district is not significant in any of the models presented. This analysis validates Shaw and McKay's core findings demonstrating why Social Disorganization Theory has become and still is, an important theoretical perspective explaining neighbourhood crime.
Keyword:
Social Disorganized Theory, Spatial regression analysis, Shaw and McKay, Juvenile delinquency.